Helpful tools to support evidence-based change in social care – Theory of Change

What is a Theory of Change?

Simply put, a theory of change is “a process for thinking about and describing the change you want to see and your plans for achieving that change.”

IMPACT’s Theory of Change is co-produced with partners, including people with lived experience and practitioners.

A Theory of Change should be a working document that details how the main activities lead to the desired change. This encourages better planning, linking all stages of the process to the longer-term goals. It also helps with evaluation, as it enables progress towards longer-term goals to be measured.

What should the Theory of Change include?

The key to the Theory of Change is something that represents the following stages: 

  • What are we trying to change?
  • Who will be leading the change?
  • What are the main activities?
  • Who will participate in these activities?
  • What are the key outputs?
  • What are the benefits in the medium term?
  • What are the longer-term benefits?

There are four ways of representing these stages:

  • The CES Planning Triangle© 
  • Logic model
  • Outcomes chain
  • Written narrative

These options are explored in detail in the following guidance: Creating-your-theory-of-change1.pdf 

IMPACT uses an outcomes chain to represent its Theories of Change.

To get the most out of your Theory of Change, it is good practice to include some narrative explaining the rationale behind the piece of work.  This might include: 

  • An introduction to what a theory of change is, and the process you used to develop it. 
  • Some contextual information about the change you are aiming for such as the geographical, social and economic context, and who your target group is. 
  • Evidence that is already available to support this change – IMPACT projects start with an evidence review 
  • How you are going to evaluate the impact of the change, and what evidence you need to collect to do this. 

How to co-produce a Theory of Change

  • Step 1 – Who needs to be involved 

The first stage of developing a theory of change is to identify who will need to be part of the group and bringing those people together. 

  • Step 2 – Agree on long-term goals 

As a group you will need to clarify your long-term goals.  It is best not to choose too many – 3 or 4 should be enough. 

  • Step 3 – Identify the context you are working in and your basic assumptions 

It is important to understand the local context, including why this issue is important and what some of the challenges are.  It is also useful to identify assumptions – things that the group knows to be true relating to the issue.   

Defining internal and external enablers (things that will help the initiative succeed) is a key part of the Theory of Change. 

  • Step 4 – Plan your activities 

Activities should be agreed by the group and should be measurable.  The resources you will need to complete these activities should be identified at this point. 

  • Stage 5 – State what your think your outputs from the activities will be 

What do you expect to happen as a result of your activities?  How will this help you to meet your longer term goals. E.g. number of people trained, number of people who have attended engagement events. 

  • Stage 6 – Measuring change 

Consider what you want to measure, what evidence you will need to do this, and how the data will be captured. 

  • Stage 7 – Write up your Theory of Change 

See above – this can be represented in a diagram or a narrative. 

  • Stage 8 – Share your learning 

Support people in your local area and more widely by sharing the learning from this project.